Super Tuesday: Election Predictions.

Today, clowns in the nationwide political circus known as the “Presidential Election” will take another step in their competition for Top Clown, a position also known as “Top Scapegoat”. They compete for the opportunity to preside over a sputtering economy, two failed wars, racial and gender insanity sweeping the country, and a looming recession within their first term that will probably torpedo their hopes at being re-elected.

Why would anyone want this position? I’m not sure. I suspect it has to do with a hunger for power and a shot at making it into the history books. However, the next President may find themselves getting into the history books in ways they don’t like. Think “Herbert Hoover”.

I do not expect much positive change out of the Presidency, no matter who wins. I am of the opinion that national politics are mostly hopeless. The bottom line is this: both mainstream Democrats and Republicans have repeatedly demonstrated a commitment to an expansion of government spending. Democrats lean toward welfare, Republicans lean toward warfare. Usually, they hold hands and increase these things together. The public usually supports them in this. There is no widespread and committed opposition to welfare or warfare.

I see more hope in local politics. Personally, I would like to see conservatives focus on capturing the vote on State, County, and City levels. Generally speaking, the things most affecting your day-to-day life are coming from local governance: city ordinance, property taxes, road rules, etc. Where conservatives can be elected at these levels, they can be far more effective at rolling back government regulation and lowering taxes that affect our day-to-day lives. In contrast, the President does not generally do much that significantly affects our day-to-day lives. When you boil it all down, the only thing the President tends to have any direct control over is military action. Otherwise, they are hamstrung by Congress.

If Congress and the Presidency are controlled by the same party, like how Democrats controlled both from 2008 to 2010, then the President can get far more of his agenda through. But even from 2008 to 2010, all we got in terms of major legislation was Obamacare. And that wasn’t even really Obama’s doing: Nancy Pelosi had been sitting on that legislation for years, and she rammed it through. Good deal for her, because now Obama is left holding the bag on a program that most Americans hate.

Anyway, I view Presidential elections as mostly entertainment. I like to be entertained. This is why I can appreciate Donald Trump’s and Bernie Sander’s candidacies, in some ways. Trump has completely thrown the Establishment GOP into disarray. I hate the Establishment GOP, which refuses to take a principled stand on anything. So I am entertained by this. And Bernie Sanders has lit up a fire under Grandma Hillary’s fanny, which has been a source of endless entertainment. Keep it comin’, boys.

PREDICTIONS THUS FAR

I have few exact predictions for who will win what states, and in what percentages. I leave that to the political statisticians and pollsters. The political betting websites still lean Clinton for the Presidency, which I agree with.

I have said that I think Granny Hill will be our next President. I still think this. She is the overwhelming Establishment favorite. She is left-wing enough to appease most Democrats without being so radically left-wing as to push away conservative Democrats. In short, she is a definitive centrist. She has the support of Wall Street and Corporate America, the Media, and the wealthy political elites. Even the sinister yet universally praised Henry Kissinger has waddled out to pronounce his support for Hillary at various times.

Hillary is not charismatic. She doesn’t elicit the sort of public adoration we see from Sanders supporters. But she has a basic level of trust from Democratic voters, not to mention name recognition.

There were hiccups along the way. In the Iowan primary, Hillary barely beat out Bernie Sanders by improbably winning 6 coin tosses in a row for too-close-to-call precincts. In New Hampshire, she was thrashed by Bernie Sanders. But New England Democrats tend to be among some of the most liberal in the country. The state motto of New Hampshire, “Live Free or Die”, could be modified to “Live for Free or Die” and not be too far from the public mindset.

But she quickly bounced back, taking the Nevada primary and utterly obliterating Bernie Sanders in the coveted South Carolina primary. This does not bode well for Bernie Sanders, which he knows. He put his all into South Carolina, pandering to SC blacks as the Great White Hope in an attempt to cash in on their vote. Unfortunately for him, it clearly did not work.

If you asked me to put money down right now, I’d bet that Sanders is done. Unless he manages to score major upset victories in basically every primary today, his campaign will have little chance of securing the Democratic nomination. I think he probably has his home state of Vermont locked down, but all bets are off regarding the other states. He seems to poll highly in Colorado, so perhaps he can pull off a victory there. But it’s ultimately irrelevant; if he doesn’t stomp Hillary today, then his campaign is done.

However, I don’t necessarily think he’ll quit. He has hinted before that he’ll run all the way to the end, with or without the nomination. Really, he has nothing to lose. At 75, he’s pretty dang old. This might be the last really exciting thing he gets to do in his life. If I were him, I’d keep going. Why the hell not? Yeah, he’d split the Hillary vote, which will make Establishment Democrats angry. But he is not one of the Democratic Party faithful. In fact, he wasn’t even a registered Democrat when he started his campaign. I doubt he cares much if he pisses off the Democratic Party elites.

Ultimately, Sanders will lose. But his candidacy exposes a deepening rift within the Democratic Party: growing tensions between the left-centrists and the hardcore left. The stagnant economy has thrown centrist domination into question, which is deepening rifts on both the left and right between centrists and the hardcore. The hardcore left wants expanded State control of everything and unlimited deficit spending. The hardcore right wants reduced State control and reduced spending. Meanwhile, the center wants governance to continue muddling on the way it has since Bush Sr. Both the hardcore left and the hardcore right are figuring out that something deeply wrong is afoot in America, although both will attribute that to different things. The point is: the centrist alliance is falling apart. The Sanders’ and Cruzes of the political scene are not going to be as quiet as they used to be.

Looking at Trump, it is clear that he’s as much a wild card as ever. I expect that he will do pretty well today. I suspect that Texas will go to Cruz, as well as perhaps another southern state or two. Rubio, who is frequently touted as the new “safe” Republican frontrunner, has yet to make a strong showing in any primaries. Rubio’s campaign strikes me as one devoid of any enthusiasm for Rubio himself. I feel like his campaign slogan could be “At least I’m not Trump or Cruz!” He is trying to appeal directly to centrist Republicans. I am not sure this will work. Centrism is becoming unpopular.

I’ll say this: Trump may well win every primary today. If I had to pick a state for him to lose in, it’d be Texas. But in every other Republican primary, I think he has a good chance of winning. I strongly suspect that Trump is going to end the day with a smile on his face. Perhaps I’ll eat my words. It would be quite the upset to see Trump lose out in today’s primaries.

I think Cruz has a better shot at the Republican nomination than Rubio. But paradoxically, I think he has less of a chance against Hillary than Rubio. It doesn’t matter, though. They would both lose to Hillary.

What if Trump gains the nomination? I barely know what to think. Trump has yanked the tablecloth out from under the dishes, but not in the smooth magic-trick way. I mean that he’s sent all the dishes and silverware flying. He’s broken almost every conventional piece of political logic that people have thrown at him, and he only gets more popular. If Trump faces off against Hillary, I will still predict a Hillary victory. But I won’t be holding my breath. I simply don’t know what to expect. I can say this much: if Trump is willing to take the gloves off against Clinton, then I just might watch a debate between them. I expect to be entertained. Hillary’s closet is so full of skeletons that it’d make even Jeffery Dahmer blush.

Trump has changed the game. Moving forward, I suspect “conventional political logic” won’t be as conventional as it used to be, for better or for worse.

Trump is refreshing, if nothing else. Most people involved in politics or the political media take themselves way too seriously. Trump does not take any of these people seriously, and he makes that clear. I don’t mind seeing some of these schmucks get taken down a peg.

CONCLUSION

Unless all the rumors of his “unelectability” prove true, Trump is probably set for a strong showing today. Rubio and Cruz will jockey for second. If Rubio performs poorly, I think his goose is cooked. Same for Cruz. But the 2nd placers typically stick it out for a while. They will both remain a little while longer, jockeying for second. Cruz generates more excitement than Rubio. I think he could stick it out longer than Rubio.

I think Bernie’s slide downward will mostly continue. He will probably make some strong showings in a few states, maybe even a victory or two. But I think Hillary will win out. Bernie appeals to a very specific type of liberal. To some extent, he is Trump’s Democrat counterpart: it seems that most Democrats who do not love him instead choose to strongly dislike him.

I still think Hillary will be our next President. This means she will preside over a floundering economy, failed foreign policy abroad, a miserable and failing war in Afghanistan, and an economic recession that will probably hit before the end of her first term. Oh, whoopee. If she becomes President, conservatives should not lament too much; there is a good chance that she will not be re-elected. Plus, her problems will make liberals look bad. Look at the bright side of things.

Like I said earlier, conservatives should focus more on local politics. While liberals lumber around the capital and try to control everyone via the Federal machinery, grassroots conservative politicians can be undermining their policies on a local level. This is one of the biggest weaknesses of political liberalism: an obsession with taking control of everyone from the top-down. The antidote to this is resistance from the ground-up.

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