The 5 Votes That Matter.

79-year old Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died. So far, the official word is that he died of natural causes. There have been interesting circumstances around his death. There was no autopsy. The Judge presiding over the investigation of his death did not even see his body in person. His body was reportedly found with “a pillow over his head”.

But I don’t doubt he died of natural causes. There is no actual evidence to suggest anything else. I just like to think big.

Scalia was a mostly consistent conservative. He was an ardent Constitutionalist. He was a faithful Catholic who opposed abortion at every turn. He made enough rulings against statism to earn some points in my book.

Liberals hated him. They’re glad to see him go.

Obama has said that he intends to nominate a new Justice before the end of his term. Current Attorney General Loretta Lynch has been floated as a possibility. Others have suggested Elizabeth Warren. No matter the case, I suspect that Obama will attempt to nominate someone from the far-left. Considering that he is an utterly lame-duck president, this may be his last hurrah.

Currently, the Supreme Court is nearly deadlocked. Most decisions come down to 5 against 4. It skews slightly left. Obama’s appointee would surely drive it into the territory of far-left.

Problem (for Obama): the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans, can block his nominee from being appointed. Whether they will have the backbone or not is another story; Congressional Republicans are infamous for waffling when it counts.

Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell has claimed that the Senate will not allow Obama to appoint anyone, period. They intend to give this privilege to whoever is President next.

This has enraged liberals, who are loudly complaining that it is Obama’s constitutional right to appoint a member of the Supreme Court, and that the Senate is being obstructionist. But it is also the Senate’s constitutional right to deny the president’s appointee. They are as legally allowed to deny Obama’s appointee as he is allowed to select an appointee.

Of course, this really has nothing to do with the constitution. Since when have liberals cared about the letter of the constitution? Since when have most conservatives cared, for that matter? Both groups tend to trot out the constitution only when it serves their political purposes. Otherwise, fuhgeddaboutit.


There are nine justices on the Supreme Court. This means that a majority of 5 is needed to make a decision. These are the 5 votes that matter. These 5 votes matter more than the 319 million votes across the rest of America. These 5 votes can overturn whatever the 319 million votes choose. A solidly liberal Supreme Court will weaken a conservative-led government, even if overwhelmingly elected.

I am of the opinion that Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency. This looks less certain than it did a few months ago, but I still think her campaign can pull enough strings to make it happen. Winning 6 of 6 coin tosses for too-close-to-call delegates in Iowa sounds mighty convenient, considering the improbable odds. She is without question the Establishment’s chosen candidate, and they will work hard to get her into office.

Bernie Sanders has embarrassed her. A zany old man with zero charisma who believes in publicly failed ideas is practically neck-and-neck with her in most polls. This has damaged her pride and prestige. But I still think she will manage to beat him out. Establishment Democrats don’t mind keeping Bernie around for the purposes of radical-chic, but he is not their anointed. He isn’t even a registered Democrat.

There is still the chance she may be indicted for crimes surrounding her illegal home e-mail server. If this happens, the Republican nominee will have a far better chance of being elected. The Establishment Democrats will scramble to get Joe Biden or some other center-left mainstay into the race. I sincerely doubt they will rally behind Bernie Sanders. Mr. Sanders may not feel inclined to graciously stand aside for the benefit of the mainstream candidate. Perhaps it depends on his mood. If he stays in the race to the end, it will split the vote.

Former Judge Andrew Napolitano thinks Hillary will be indicted. His evidence of this is reasonable: the FBI has assigned over 100 agents to her case, which means that the investigation is becoming extremely expensive. Where government is concerned, follow the money. If the FBI is willing to spend this much money on her investigation, it might mean that they’re serious about uncovering something. Personally, I’ll believe it when I see it. History has shown that the Royal Clintons are largely immune to the rule of law.

If Hillary wins, she’ll be able to make the Supreme Court appointment. The Senate is not going to block appointments for 4 years straight, possibly eight. I think she will avoid any of the really crazy far left ex-hippies. The Senate will repeatedly block these. But she can probably slip through a younger moderate liberal. The famously weak-willed Congressional Republicans will ultimately buckle to this. This appointee will then sit on the court for 30 years.

If the Senate goes to the Democrats and Hillary has the opportunity to nominate a Supreme Court Justice, then we really are screwed. In an attempt to pacify the Sanders supporters, she’ll nominate a hardcore progressive leftist out looking for blood. But I don’t think that the Senate will go to the Democrats anytime soon.

If Rubio is elected, he’ll probably appoint a useless mushy half-conservative. If Ted Cruz were to win the Presidency, he might appoint a hardcore conservative. The Senate will have a hard time with this. They want useless mushy Republicans who bow to the Party, not hardcore conservatives who work on principle. So Cruz might have a difficult time getting someone through. If Trump were elected, I have no idea what to expect. His ideology (insofar as you can call it that) is a bizarre mishmash of liberal and conservative rhetoric. Maybe he can make the appointment process into his next reality TV show.

No matter what happens, I suspect the Court will inevitably move leftward. Democratic administrations have a perfect track record of nominating leftists to the court. Republican administrations have a track record of nominating half genuine conservatives and half pseudo-conservative moderate liberals who inevitably trend more liberal over time. So the overall trend is liberal.

The main saving grace I see in the future is the bitter pill: the bankruptcy of the Federal Government. To some extent, this will force a grand rollback of the Federal Government. This, I really see as inevitable. Voters, both right-wing and left-wing, want more government spending. Everybody claims to stand for prudent spending, but everyone wants the other guy’s budget to get cut first. So, nobody’s budget will get cut first. Deficit spending will continue loftily upward… until it can’t.






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