“NO” – The Future of Scottish Secession.

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Scotland recently voted “No” to declaring independence. It was not a surprising result; I had predicted they would vote No. I also thought the vote would be close, which was also correct: I think it was 55% who voted No against 45% who voted Yes.

I was a little disappointed to see a majority “No” vote. I would’ve liked to have seen Scotland break away from the UK. However, I have no illusions about what the vote would’ve achieved. Whether Yes or No to secession, Scotland would’ve remained a strict Welfare State. The only question at hand was whether Scotland should rely on London for Welfare, or rely on a national government of their own for Welfare. Either way, the perpetuation of the Scottish welfare state was a given.

Either way, Scottish voters are totally committed to the Welfare State. All mainstream political currents in Scotland are dedicated to socialism. There is no libertarian or conservative tradition in Scotland. The “Yes” vote was mainly carried, I’m quite sure, by Scots dependent on welfare who want to retain the ability to suck money out of English taxpayers. They understood, correctly so, that severing ties with London might disrupt their welfare benefits. From a welfare standpoint , voting No was the way to go.

In a manner of speaking, this vote is still a victory for Scottish secessionists, albeit bittersweet. The best result in favor of the Union would have been for the “No” votes to smash the “Yes” votes, something along the lines of 75% against 25%. That was clearly not the case. Nearly half of all Scots would rather be independent. This is an attitude that is not likely to go away anytime soon. In fact, I think it highly likely that secessionist attitudes will continue to grow in Scotland. When the next major recession strikes the Western world, I think that might give the Scots the push they need to finally break away from London.

Examine the chart below for a clue as to the future of the Scottish secession movement:

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Who overwhelmingly voted “No”? Old folks; those over 65. You can be sure a lot of these people rely on old-age pensions to get by, and did not want to rock the vote by severing ties with London. Furthermore, I suspect older folks may have a more fond viewpoint towards the Union, possibly due to nostalgic or historic reasons. By that same token, who overwhelmingly voted “Yes”? The young folks. Of course, the older folks will continue to die off, with the younger voters remaining. If the young voters continue to hold they views they have now, then it seems to me that Scottish independence may be inevitable within the next 50 years, especially when the welfare states of the Western world begin collapsing.

Only time will tell.

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