Iranian sitaution critical, Kissinger warns.

I don’t like Henry Kissinger. He’s a rotten guy, and is responsible for a lot of terrible things that happened during the Cold War. However, I take his opinions on foreign affairs very seriously. In the attached video, Kissinger warns that we are running out of time in the Iranian Nuclear situation, and that it is fast approaching the point of crisis. The time is coming in which we either have to make good on our years-old threats against Iran and it’s nuclear program, or we have to cut our losses and move on. Either decision will have serious impacts and consequences; but we have to decide soon.

For your viewing pleasure, I have roughly transcribed Kissinger’s dissertation from the video. I made some slight modifications to make it easier to understand, but all of his main ideas and points are intact.

“When you look at the public statements that American Presidents have made over the years, they have all asserted that the Iranian Nuclear Military Program must be stopped; but they have used terms that show different shades of meaning. Some say they must not have a Nuclear WEAPONS capability, others say they must not have Nuclear Capability at all (for power, medicine, etc). In the debates between [Obama and Romney], these two terms were used interchangeably. If the dividing line is that they must not have a nuclear weapon, then it will become nearly impossible to enforce because that means they can continue to enrich plutonium. There are 3 levels that define nuclear weapons capability: delivery systems, enrichment capability, and warheads. The delivery systems are not even a subject of negotiation. So the question is whether the enrichment capability is eliminated, or just significantly curtailed. Drawing the line at warhead development is not meaningful, because the jump from civilian enrichment to weapon is too short. Our intelligence capability in that regard is too limited to monitor their activities. Apparently, negotiations are going on. The fact of a bilateral negotiation between the USA and Iran is a matter of grave concern to Israel and the Sunni Arab world, because they both fear Iranian nuclear capability and want it totally eliminated (*Author’s note: In case you didn’t know, Iran is controlled by Shiite Muslims, who are typically mortal enemies of Sunni Muslims).  Where the negotiations seems to be going is to establish some point of enrichment they will not be allowed to cross. The conventional wisdom is that if you permit enrichment beyond the 5% level, you are close to a military enrichment capability. The two quick debates that will go on are: Should we negotiate with Iran at all, and how do you handle enrichment oversight? On the question of whether we should negotiate with Iran at all, it seems to me that the point that has been reached in which Israel has indicated they may take unilateral action within a six-month period, and we have said that no option is off the table in preventing the enrichment. However, the enrichment is proceeding at a pace which makes the debate potentially irrelevant. It means that some negotiation has to be attempted no matter what course we go. If we are prepared to go to war on that issue or attempt a blockade, then we need to go through this negotiation process; but we have a limited time. It has to be done within the calendar year of 2013, or the technological progress in Iran will outrun events. We have to understand that if we cannot stop the enrichment, we then will be living with a nuclear Iran and the consequences this will have in the spread of nuclear technology through the region, the increased likelihood of some nuclear weapon being used at some point. It invokes the laws of credibility: when for years you have said something is unacceptable, but you then cannot define what you mean by unacceptable. Those are the criteria that will have to be applied.”

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